TVR Shenoy has an article criticizing the suspension of military aid to Nepal
Scenario One: The Maoists intensify their attacks, controlling larger swatches of that unfortunate country. They already rule 39 of Nepal’s 75 districts. If India chooses to starve the Royal Nepal Army of supplies, in the name of restoring democracy, there is an excellent chance that the king and his forces will simply throw in the towel and give in to the Maoists. The Maoists will then join hands with their murderous Naxalite brethren in India.
Scenario Two: What happens if King Gyanendra becomes desperate at the Indian decision to stop military supplies? Let us remember that it is open to him to seek aid from Pakistan or China. This gives him a fighting chance of beating the Maoists. The victorious monarch shall then be an enemy of India as long as he lives (and probably his successors too).
Scenario Three: The Government of India decides to reverse its stance and resume the flow of arms to the Royal Nepal Army. The politicians in Nepal will protest vehemently. Irrespective of whether King Gyanendra carries the field against the Maoists, a section of the Nepali people will hate India. [India’s short-sightedness]
While India tolerates a King in Bhutan, dictators in Myanmar and a General who exiled a Prime Minister, suddenly we have come intolerant of a King. The Maoists are gaining in Nepal and that is not good for India as well as Nepal. Most Communist/Maoist coming of power is followed by genocide and getting them off the chair is almost impossible. India has its own Naxalite problems and thanks to the lenient handling of the borders by the present Indian administration, both these guys are able to exchange notes.
Now that India and Britain has suspended aid, King Gyanendra has asked for international aid which means that some other countries could get involved in India’s neighborhood. India’s best bet would be to help Gyanendra in his fight against the Maoists while exerting sufficient pressure to bring back democracy.
I am doing a project on the crisis in Nepal. Does anyone know when it exactly started? Who started the civil war, the Maoists and why won’t India help? Is anyone trying to help?