Monsoon Predictions

While the IMD has predicted “a below normal monsoon this year”:, the IRI is predicting that the monsoon will arrive on time and bring good rains. IRI is the US-based International Research Institute for Climate Prediction
“Now, some good news on monsoon”:
bq. In its sumBook Review: Pakistanreport, the IRI notes with satisfaction that the El Nino of 2002-03 ??has now nearly dissipated to neutral conditions??. That?s very good news for India because El Nino years have a 60 per cent chance of of average rains being below normal and 55 per cent chance of the driest season.
It seems El Nino is out and La Nina is in. No one tells me anything these days. And here is some accusing IMD of “gratuitously staying prisoner to the exigencies of vote bank politics”. Note that the IMD is just the Meteorology Dept.
“Prospects For South-West Monsoon 2003”:
bq. However, by not making public the details of its own forecasting exercises, the IMD is gratuitously staying prisoner to the exigencies of vote bank politics. The only way to establish its professionalism is to make public the product of its exertions without an eye to the comfort or discomfort of politicians. Else, it fails to serve the public interest.
This blog will keep track of who won the prediction contest. The IMD or the IRI.